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We present the first estimate of the Galactic nova rate based on optical transient surveys covering the entire sky. Using data from the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN) and Gaia—the only two all-sky surveys to report classical nova candidates—we find 39 confirmed Galactic novae and 7 additional unconfirmed candidates discovered from 2019 to 2021, yielding a nova discovery rate of ≈14 yr⁻¹. Using accurate Galactic stellar mass models and three-dimensional dust maps and incorporating realistic nova light curves, we have built a sophisticated Galactic nova model to estimate the fraction of Galactic novae discovered by these surveys over this time period. The observing capabilities of each survey are distinct: the high cadence of ASAS-SN makes it sensitive to fast novae, while the broad observing filter and high spatial resolution of Gaia make it more sensitive to highly reddened novae across the entire Galactic plane and bulge. Despite these differences, we find that ASAS-SN and Gaia give consistent Galactic nova rates, with a final joint nova rate of 26 ± 5 yr⁻¹. This inferred nova rate is substantially lower than found by many other recent studies. Critically assessing the systematic uncertainties in the Galactic nova rate, we argue that the role of faint, fast-fading novae has likely been overestimated, but that subtle details in the operation of transient alert pipelines can have large, sometimes unappreciated effects on transient recovery efficiency. Our predicted nova rate can be directly tested with forthcoming red/near-infrared transient surveys in the southern hemisphere.

 

We present the results from a high-cadence, multiwavelength observation campaign of AT 2016jbu (aka Gaia16cfr), an interacting transient. This data set complements the current literature by adding higher cadence as well as extended coverage of the light-curve evolution and late-time spectroscopic evolution. Photometric coverage reveals that AT 2016jbu underwent significant photometric variability followed by two luminous events, the latter of which reached an absolute magnitude of MV ∼ −18.5 mag. This is similar to the transient SN 2009ip whose nature is still debated. Spectra are dominated by narrow emission lines and show a blue continuum during the peak of the second event. AT 2016jbu shows signatures of a complex, non-homogeneous circumstellar material (CSM). We see slowly evolving asymmetric hydrogen line profiles, with velocities of 500 km s−1 seen in narrow emission features from a slow-moving CSM, and up to 10 000 km s−1 seen in broad absorption from some high-velocity material. Late-time spectra (∼+1 yr) show a lack of forbidden emission lines expected from a core-collapse supernova and are dominated by strong emission from H, He i, and Ca ii. Strong asymmetric emission features, a bumpy light curve, and continually evolving spectra suggest an inhibit nebular phase. We compare the evolution of H α among SN 2009ip-like transients and find possible evidence for orientation angle effects. The light-curve evolution of AT 2016jbu suggests similar, but not identical, circumstellar environments to other SN 2009ip-like transients.

 

We present the bolometric light curve, identification and analysis of the progenitor candidate, and preliminary modelling of AT 2016jbu (Gaia16cfr). We find a progenitor consistent with a ∼ 22–25 M⊙ yellow hypergiant surrounded by a dusty circumstellar shell, in agreement with what has been previously reported. We see evidence for significant photometric variability in the progenitor, as well as strong Hα emission consistent with pre-existing circumstellar material. The age of the environment, as well as the resolved stellar population surrounding AT 2016jbu, supports a progenitor age of >10 Myr, consistent with a progenitor mass of ∼22 M⊙. A joint analysis of the velocity evolution of AT 2016jbu and the photospheric radius inferred from the bolometric light curve shows the transient is consistent with two successive outbursts/explosions. The first outburst ejected material with velocity ∼650 km s−1, while the second, more energetic event ejected material at ∼4500 km s−1. Whether the latter is the core collapse of the progenitor remains uncertain. We place a limit on the ejected 56Ni mass of <0.016 M⊙. Using the Binary Population And Spectral Synthesis (BPASS) code, we explore a wide range of possible progenitor systems and find that the majority of these are in binaries, some of which are undergoing mass transfer or common-envelope evolution immediately prior to explosion. Finally, we use the SuperNova Explosion Code (SNEC) to demonstrate that the low-energy explosions within some of these binary systems, together with sufficient circumstellar material, can reproduce the overall morphology of the light curve of AT 2016jbu.

 

Gaia16aye was a binary microlensing event discovered in the direction towards the northern Galactic disc and was one of the first microlensing events detected and alerted to by the Gaia space mission. Its light curve exhibited five distinct brightening episodes, reaching up to I  = 12 mag, and it was covered in great detail with almost 25 000 data points gathered by a network of telescopes. We present the photometric and spectroscopic follow-up covering 500 days of the event evolution. We employed a full Keplerian binary orbit microlensing model combined with the motion of Earth and Gaia around the Sun to reproduce the complex light curve. The photometric data allowed us to solve the microlensing event entirely and to derive the complete and unique set of orbital parameters of the binary lensing system. We also report on the detection of the first-ever microlensing space-parallax between the Earth and Gaia located at L2. The properties of the binary system were derived from microlensing parameters, and we found that the system is composed of two main-sequence stars with masses 0.57 ± 0.05 M ⊙ and 0.36 ± 0.03 M ⊙ at 780 pc, with an orbital period of 2.88 years and an eccentricity of 0.30. We also predict the astrometric microlensing signal for this binary lens as it will be seen by Gaia as well as the radial velocity curve for the binary system. Events such as Gaia16aye indicate the potential for the microlensing method of probing the mass function of dark objects, including black holes, in directions other than that of the Galactic bulge. This case also emphasises the importance of long-term time-domain coordinated observations that can be made with a network of heterogeneous telescopes. 

Context. The ESA Gaia mission provides a unique time-domain survey for more than 1.6 billion sources with G ≲ 21 mag. Aims. We showcase stellar variability in the Galactic colour-absolute magnitude diagram (CaMD). We focus on pulsating, eruptive, and cataclysmic variables, as well as on stars that exhibit variability that is due to rotation and eclipses. Methods. We describe the locations of variable star classes, variable object fractions, and typical variability amplitudes throughout the CaMD and show how variability-related changes in colour and brightness induce “motions”. To do this, we use 22 months of calibrated photometric, spectro-photometric, and astrometric Gaia data of stars with a significant parallax. To ensure that a large variety of variable star classes populate the CaMD, we crossmatched Gaia sources with known variable stars. We also used the statistics and variability detection modules of the Gaia variability pipeline. Corrections for interstellar extinction are not implemented in this article. Results. Gaia enables the first investigation of Galactic variable star populations in the CaMD on a similar, if not larger, scale as was previously done in the Magellanic Clouds. Although the observed colours are not corrected for reddening, distinct regions are visible in which variable stars occur. We determine variable star fractions to within the current detection thresholds of Gaia . Finally, we report the most complete description of variability-induced motion within the CaMD to date. Conclusions. Gaia enables novel insights into variability phenomena for an unprecedented number of stars, which will benefit the understanding of stellar astrophysics. The CaMD of Galactic variable stars provides crucial information on physical origins of variability in a way that has previously only been accessible for Galactic star clusters or external galaxies. Future Gaia data releases will enable significant improvements over this preview by providing longer time series, more accurate astrometry, and additional data types (time series BP and RP spectra, RVS spectra, and radial velocities), all for much larger samples of stars.